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Research Project on

Contraceptive Use Dynamics In Indonesia With
A Special Focus On Bali: Measurements & Determinants

Researcher: Evi Arifin
Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis

Synopsis

The project is an extension of Dr Arifin's Ph.D. dissertation. There have been many studies on contraceptive use prevalence in Indonesia, but little is known on contraceptive use dynamics and its determinants in the Indonesia and its provinces. Since 1991 the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) has used a calendar approach to collect information retrospectively on birth and contraceptive histories for five-six years before the survey. This project utilises the rich data set to better understand the contraceptive use dynamics and its determinants in Bali, Indonesia.

First, the study examines factors associated with the correlation between contraceptive prevalence and fertility rate. Second, it establishes measurements of contraceptive use dynamics (discontinuation and its reasons, contraceptive failure, and switching after discontinuation) for the country as a whole by taking into consideration variation among provinces and its changes from 1986-91 to 1989-94.

The analysis is then focused to Bali on the determinants of discontinuation and of switching behaviour after discontinuation. This project uses multilevel discrete-time competing risks hazard models. It also analyses current modern contraceptive choice with a focus on the effect of price of contraception. As contraceptive choice and its price are interdependent, a system of simultaneous equations exists and two-stage estimation is used to deal with this problem.

Status
In progress

Publications
Paper on ‘Unintended Pregnancy from Contraceptive Failure: Levels, Trends and Differentials in Indonesia’, by Evi Arifin, presented in the XXIV IUSSP General Population Conference, Salvador, Brazil: 18-24 August 2001.

Paper on ‘Determinants of Contraceptive Choice in Below Replacement Level Fertility Province: Bali, Indonesia’, by Evi Arifin, presented in the International Workshop on ‘Fertility Decline, Below Replacement Fertility and the Family in Asia: Prospects, Consequences and Policies’, 10-12 April 2002, Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Paper on ‘Impact of Price on Contraceptive Choice in Low Fertility Province: Bali, Indonesia’, by Evi Arifin, to be presented in the 2002 Annual Meeting of Population Association of America, 9-11 May 2002, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

 

 

 

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